According to Epstein, an argument has to pass three tests in order for it to be graded as good. First, "the premises are plausible," even more so than the conclusion following it. (Epstein 42). Finally, "the argument is valid or strong." (Epstein 42).
Example of an argument:
Michael Phelps is a fast competitive swimmer.
He is the only Olympian to ever win 14 gold metals.
So at the 2012 summer Olympics in London, Michael Phelps will be the winner of the most gold metals.
The premises in this argument are true and plausible because Phelps is a fast swimmer and really did win 14 gold metals. The premises are even more plausible than the conclusion because it cannot be determined whether Phelps will win the most gold metals at the 2012 Olympics. He may not even compete in the 2012 Olympics. Each Olympian has the same chance at getting the most gold metals as Michael Phelps does. Thus, this argument is strong because the conclusion may be false, and invalid because another Olympian besides Michael Phelps may win the most metals at the 2012 summer Olympics.
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